2023 beer resolutions, part 4

What are brewery owners, brewers, and other luminaries expecting to see in 2023. Here is a compilation of their predictions and resolutions.

Again, you know why you’re here. Here’s the next part of my look at beer resolutions and predictions.

For the sixth consecutive year, the last five of which came at the Democrat and Chronicle, I texted nearly every beer contact in my phone and asked three simple questions:

1. What is your beer prediction for 2023?

2. What is your beer resolution?

3. Where do you see the market headed?

Parts 1 and 2 can be read from the Cleveland Prost homepage.

Bryan Roth, Good Beer Hunting news editor

What is your beer prediction for 2023?

Beer will continue to move toward a more style-agnostic positioning of beer brands—the updated version of New Belgium's Fat Tire is one way breweries recognize that consumers care less about style as a traditional moniker. In the coming year, companies will lean on experience as style: flavor, the feeling of "refreshment," etc. Consumers can understand images and descriptions of fruit on a beer label, but "amber ale" or "schwarzbier" just don't resonate in the same way. In some new releases, it's about minimizing the idea of beer as much as possible and playing up expectations of experience.

What is your beer resolution?

Try more non-alcoholic beers. Like so many other beer enthusiasts who have tip-toed into this space, it's been hard to find brands I like. So many just taste like unfermented wort. But I'm thankful for specialty releases from Athletic that basically mimic craft beer trends, and new offerings like Rick's Near Beer that come from beer industry pros. It's easier for me to enjoy something that's also healthier for my body.

Deron Weet, Lagunitas Brewing sale rep

IPA will continue to expand as its own category, possibly cresting above 50 percent of all craft beer sold (it’s getting close) by the end of 2023, with hazy IPAs continuing to lead the charge along with high octane hoppy options being becoming more popular because of people looking for bang for their buck. Inflation, rising cost of ingredients, diesel, supply chain challenges that linger from Covid, etc. brought the industry some serious price increases in 2022 and it’s not going to get better anytime soon. 

I think the obsession with flavored beers, the bloom is a bit off the rose at this point. Whether it’s general burnout on drinking those styles, or people realizing they’re 1,000 calories a can, in concert with people making healthier choices in general about their drinking options. 

Speaking of healthier choices, the NA category will continue to flourish with more and more options being released. 

Personally and I say this every year, I hope with the recent slightly amplified increase in popularity of beer flavored beer more people will be willing to step outside of their comfort zone and be open to trying the styles that built good beer. What’s important is how they’re introduced to it. 

The older I get the more I’m drinking lower octane styles, I still love my big beers but at this point probably 90 percent of my consumption of those are sharing with others, 3-4 ounces is enough. 

Nate Kester, Irondequoit Beer Co. head brewer

My New Beers resolution for 2023 is similar to what it was last year, and the year before that: to experiment with styles I’ve never brewed, and to refine my technique on our well-worn styles. There are so many types of beer out there that I’ve never made, and trying new things is what keeps this adventure fresh and exciting.  In that same vein, there’s always ways to improve upon the beers we already brew, so that’s a big goal of mine, too. New beers and better beers is the name of the game.

I’m consistently way off on predictions, so I’ll change the assignment (sorry Will!).  Instead, I’ll talk about my hopes for the new year. First, at Irondequoit Beer Company, I hope to entice people to go outside of their beer comfort zone and try something they normally wouldn’t. IPA drinker? How about an ESB? Usually stick to fruited sours?  Try something Belgian!  For me, that’s what it’s all about.  

On a grander scale, I hope we start seeing more clean, malt-forward beers coming to the forefront. We’ve used hops (and fruit) to get a multitude of different flavor profiles for years in the craft beer scene, and I’d love to see that same creativity applied to malts and yeasts on a consistent basis. I think some people would be blown away with what you can do with grains.

And finally, I hope the Rochester beer scene will continue to expand and collaborate.  We’re pretty spoiled here, and I’m all for it.  Cheers!

2023 beer resolutions, part 1

Jon Mansfield, War Horse Brewing marketing/graphic designer

My prediction for craft beer in 2023? It's a tough question to answer, as the road to the future is always changing. But I'll give it my best. 

NA beers/hop water

Enter the world of NA and hop water. Some folks drink it because they want to keep a clear head and avoid the morning-after-the-night-before feeling. Others drink it because they're looking to be a little healthier. And some people drink it because it's perfect for doing the "shake your can a little and point at it so you can walk away from a dud of a conversation to go get a refill". 

Tastings

In-person festivals are awesome, but one face-to-face event that people might not think of is the in-store tasting. They are finally coming back and they are a wildly important aspect of our business. They may be the best and most personal way of (re)introducing ourselves and our wares to folks. Our crew loves going out shaking hands, kissing babies, and meeting friends old and new, all while telling our story, and they are the best in the game. 

That's all I've got for you, but I want to take a moment to thank you, dear reader (I've always wanted to say that in print) for spending your hard-earned money on what we make. It's an honor to know that our creations are a part of your day and it means the world to me. Times can be tough, and money can be tight, but your willingness to invest in our local scene is truly humbling. The connection between the maker and the consumer is very close and is something truly special, and I am honored to be a part of that connection.
So, from the bottom of my heart, thank you. May the year ahead be filled with good company, wonderful memories, and delicious beer. And know that your support is appreciated more than words can express.

Dale VanPamelen, Tin Barn Brewing co-owner

I'm sure I will be echoing others that say 2023 is likely to be a year of strong introspection on market positioning, actual beer output and new product introduction for breweries. 

My guess is that the craft beer customer will start feeling a pinch in their pockets around the end of summer/beginning of fall. I believe people will start thinking about their discretionary funds and spending them more wisely. They will seek out beer that they consider to be of higher quality for their “outings” and may transition back to macro beer for everyday drinking. It can be difficult to pass up a 24 pack for $15. It may become a weekday vs. weekend situation where macros win the weekdays and craft takes the weekends. 

I also think breweries will begin thinking about their output. It will be a question of how to base the amount needed on a slight downward projection from 2021/2022. Do they need to brew a full batch for those slower periods? Probably not. The hard thing will be deciding what percentage of output they need, based on previous year's numbers.

I also believe breweries will begin to look at products that were previously thought to be outside their normal scope. Should they diversify into RTDs, low-non alcohol beers, coffee? Revenue must come in to "keep the boat afloat." In harder times, who cares where that revenue comes from?

Tin Barn's personal resolution is to evolve, adapt and refine our IPAs. The New England IPA is an ever-changing quest for the “Holy Grail.” A brewery and an IPA drinker strive to get as close as they can, knowing that they will brew/drink some absolutely wonderful IPAs. Somewhere in the way back of their mind, though, they think the next one might be somehow, slightly better. More fruity, more tropical, more something. The IPA drinker is a specific animal. It's what keeps them constantly searching for that perfect beer. It's also what makes them a great customer! 

We are finding many new products on the market that we are testing in our IPAs. New yeasts, new hops, new hop products that intensify flavor while reducing loss come out almost monthly. New processes on how to use malt, when to hop, when not to, different temperatures to ferment and hop at. So many new ideas and products came out in 2022 that we named a new series of IPAs, Evolution. We try a new product or process in every one. It challenging and fun.  Customers love to tell you what they thought about, this hop or a new process. We like to keep them involved and share the new ideas with them. It's how the IPA evolves.

Tin barn is basically a taproom model. We don't distribute. (Head brewer) Lauren (VanPamelen, Dale’s daughter) likes to keep the chain of custody of our beer, especially our IPAs, from our hands directly to the end consumer. It's a more personal feeling when you get to meet the person drinking your beer face to face. It's the way we like it and it has done well for us.

Another goal for 2023 is to collaborate more. Collaborations are just plain fun! They are also how you learn about new ideas and products. I think we've learned something from every collaboration we've done. Many times, another brewery will come and ask you to add something that was previously outside your comfort zone. It's literally how we grow as brewers. It's also the definition of why I love this industry!

Market wise, I see the next year or two as moving in to survival mode. I watch the professional sites that sell brewery equipment and there seems to be a lot more up for sale. Breweries are going to have to be honest with themselves and set goals for survival in 2023/24. It sounds drastic but really, every day in business is "how to get to the next day, week, year, etc." Plan, adapt and constantly learn are the ways to keep moving forward.

Also, listen to your customers. If more than a few say, "I wish you had a _____ beer." Then consider making that beer. Or if they want a food item, at least consider offering a pretzel. Consider offering more reasons for them to come to your establishment like live music, games, contests and theme days. People love a reason to go out, especially after Covid.

2023 beer resolutions, part 2

Chris Deapo, Brewery Novalis owner/brewer

My beer prediction for 2023 is an increase in breweries entering the NA space.

No resolutions, never believed in them for anything.

As for the NY market, I think we will continue to see brewers dabbling into lager talking about how passionate they are about them all of a sudden, "rediscovering" older styles and trying to bring them back, and cold IPA continuing to be a thing, plus as with my prediction more NA space being entered, and an increased use in hop products (cryo, salvo, spectrum, incognito, etc) in IPA.

Matt Kahn, Big Ditch Brewing co-founder/president

A few predictions: IPAs are not going anywhere, but it's a nice change of pace to see West Coast IPAs in a bit of a revival; Craft Lagers will have a small renaissance as well but won't make much of a dent except in brewery tap rooms; Sours are becoming more boutique, barrel aged beers even more so, it's getting hard to be very successful with these styles except in small volumes; most growth (even in small volumes) will probably occur in "beyond beer". I can imagine a lot of breweries trying NA beers this year. I think craft breweries should continue to focus on their tap rooms and flagships. Try to build a brand out of a beer in your tap room that would exist even if your tap room didn't.

Resolutions: It's pretty much the same as it is every year - try to stay positive, and always work on being better at doing the things I do. I think this is true both for Big Ditch and for myself. 

Chris Rhoades, Beer Tree Brewing co-founder

Alright my Monday-morning-during-coffee predictions for you: 

The hyper-local trend will continue to be what consumers gravitate towards. The hot tap at the local watering hole will have a beer from a brewery within 30 miles of the place. Tourism will continue to rise as folks get back out on the road for weekend trips to different craft breweries or attractions near craft breweries. Sessionable beers are on the rise. But not called “session IPA” because consumers are afraid of the word session when approaching craft beer. Light hazies, pale ales, crushable lagers, overall lower ABV in the taproom. High ABV and experimental stuff will still be attractive in can form.

Steve Gray and Ben Noragong, No BS Brew Co. co-founders

Traditional craft beer will continue to gain momentum into 2023, with more breweries offering Pilsners and Lagers in their rotations. IPAs aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Lightly fruited sours will continue gaining popularity. 

Rob Richenberg, BrewBuddies founder

I think 2023 will be a big year for mead (existing producers ramping up and new ones opening) as the focus on local product continues to grow.

We’ll see more and more breweries experiment with alternative products (seltzers/NAs/ice cream!)

One that I’m really HOPING we’ll see if a shift to more sustainable packaging. Wine has Tetra packs, maybe we’ll see some innovation from someone utilizing a more plant-based packaging for their liquids?!

My personal resolution in 2023 is to drink (and convince more breweries to make) a larger variety of beer styles. I failed my 2022 resolution to drink every single style on Untappd by about 80 styles (out of 230+), but I still discovered a LOT of interesting beers along the way!

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