2024 beer resolutions and predictions, part 1

Local and regional industry folks offer picks, predictions, and resolutions for 2024 in this seventh annual edition of this series

If you were to describe the 2023 beer world in one word, it would be weird. So much goofy and unexpected stuff happened.

(Though, it’s really not unexpected if you were paying attention and are nerdy about the industry like many are.)

But we saw closures, consolidations, mergers, partnerships, and openings all over the place. And there’s little question 2024 will bring the same. Younger consumers are increasingly fickle. Does brand loyalty even exist any longer?

While it’s unquestionably a scary time for the industry, it’s also an exciting one. The overall quality of the beers being produced, especially locally, has never been better. Consumers are spoiled with choice. In order to get a better handle on what the heck is going on, I reached out to a bunch of smart contacts in my phone and asked them three simple questions:

1. What is your beer prediction for 2024?

2. What is your beer resolution?

3. Where do you see the market headed?

What follows is just a small sample of the thought-provoking responses I received. Expect at least two more parts in this series. Hope you enjoy reading these as much as I did putting them together.

Photo: A delicious and varied recent flight at BriarBrothers Brewing in Buffalo.

Micah Krichinsky, Strangebird co-founder/head brewer

1. More lagers everywhere

2. I would love to introduce more people to Blended IPAs. That is when we take a barrel of aged beer, blend it with an IPA, and then dry hop the blend.

3. Everything is cyclical. Lagers will increase significantly in packaged beer sales. American made Belgian beers will tick slightly higher in packaged beer sales. Fruited sours packaged beer sales will decline.

Meagan and David D’Allesandro, Frequentem Brewing co-founders

1. I think we will continue to see the rise of pale lagers.     

2. For us at Frequentem, we want to keep pushing our lager program forward and Keep quality at the forefront of everything we do. We are also looking forward to expanding into a new market with out second taproom (editorial aside: so excited to highlight Frequentem’s new Buffalo taproom!!) and being more involved in our local communities.     

3. Where do you see the market headed? To be honest 2023 was an interesting year for craft beer and it’s hard to say what 2024 will look like. But we are looking forward to the ride and adapting to any changes that come our way.

Nick Mesrobian, K2 Brothers Brewing brewer

Consolidations, older, more classic styles making a small comeback, and everyone will start doing variety packs.

James Hilbert, One Stop Brew Shop owner

1. Beer as a whole is now facing the most competition it has felt in years. Between options like RTDs, seltzers, hard kombucha, N/A beer and now hemp/CBD beverages, consumers have a plethora of options. I believe we will see things level out more with the craft beer industry but the craft beverage industry will continue to move along. As these trends shift, brewers will get creative and start moving into alternative beverages in the near future, if they haven't done so already. 

2. At One Stop Brew Shop, we plan on staying innovative and continue to listen to what our customers want. We want to look for new opportunities and new breweries who are interested in getting showcased in the NY market while maintaining our relationships with our current breweries in and out of New York. There is still a strong craft beer market, especially in western NY, that needs to be serviced.

3. I think the craft market might turn more localized. Mass distribution will begin to shrink as people will be more interested in what is happening regionally and locally, especially because consumers will be able to get fresher products. Also, the hemp market has been expanding at a rapid rate in NY, I would expect that to increase over time and it will be treated very similarly to the craft beer market.

Kate Bernot, Good Beer Hunting editor/North American Guild of Beer Writers president

1. I shared this on the year-end episode of The Gist, but I predict 2024 will be the year that the merger-and-acquisition trend we've seen among beer companies also happens in the ingredients tier. I'm keeping an eye out for mergers between craft maltsters, hop companies, yeast banks, etc., many of whom are feeling similar economic pressures as breweries themselves. 

2. My beer resolution is to judge more this year. I'm planning on judging the first-ever Montana Beer Awards in February, so that will be a good start! (Kate is based in the beautiful town of Missoula, Mont.)

3. The seas are choppy for beer, and for craft beer, right now. I think we'll see a widening gulf in craft beer between widely distributed breweries and hospitality-focused taprooms or brewpubs. For the last two decades, many breweries have tried to do both, even though they're vastly different types of businesses requiring different skill sets. Specialization is going to be key to survival moving forward.

John Cimperman, 42 North Brewing owner

Prediction for 2024: I do believe we will see some consolidation in the next year.  This may be in the form of mergers, rather than closings.  I also see a bigger focus on the "owned-premise" channel, meaning brewery owned taprooms vs. the distribution model.  (Editorial aside: It’s gonna be a huge year for 42 North with new taprooms slated to be opened in downtown Buffalo and potentially elsewhere.)

Photo: A really terrible night-time cellphone shot of 42 North’s upcoming Buffalo taproom.

Beer resolution: For 42 North, stay true to our principles of quality, authenticity, and collaborating with our community. We have grown slow and steady over the past eight years and there is no need to venture off course.  

Where is market headed: It's a very interesting time for the craft beer industry.  While we should not expect significant growth in craft's overall market share, there is still  room for 'local' craft to experience growth. 

Illumination Meadery, Buffalo

1. I think the rise of gluten-free options and lower ABV beverages will continue. More seltzeries and meaderies/cideries will likely open.

2.  Our resolution is to continue to improve the quality of our meads and to ramp up production so we have more to-go options! Collabs and canning coming in 2024. 

3.  Unfortunately, given the current economy and the sheer number of producers we have now, more places closing down. I think you'll see more producers join forces and share spaces, or join a collaborative space with multiple vendors.  

I’ll have at least one more part in this 2024 resolutions series to share next week. We’ve got some insight forthcoming from some of the coolest and smartest industry people in this region. While times are tough for many, it’s gonna be fascinating to see who thrives and how they attack the market to stay relevant. As always, thanks for following along. I couldn’t do this without your support.