2024 beer resolutions and predictions, part 2
2024 beer resolutions and predictions, part 2
Local and regional industry folks offer picks, predictions, and resolutions for 2024 in this seventh annual edition of this series
For this seventh straight look at the the local and regional beer scenes, I started with three simple questions with so many different potential responses. Are the respondents gonna be realistic? Are they still wearing those rose-tinted glasses? It is a mix of both? Where does the answer reside? (Probably somewhere in the middle.)
Here are the questions and then what follows are just a small sample size of the responses:
What is your beer prediction for 2024?
What is your beer resolution?
Where do you see the market headed?
More parts (at least one) will follow.
Matt Kahn, Big Ditch Brewing CEO
Our industry has become increasingly difficult to predict over the last several years.
Our resolution is to continue to innovate as much as we can, while continuing to stay true and consistent to who we are. That means we want to make all sorts of new products this year without losing sight of what we're already doing well.
I think that breweries that continue to innovate, while at the same time, are also actively investing in their best brands/products, will be fine. I think breweries that lack identity/originality will struggle. With so many breweries out there, it isn't easy to do this, but I'm still relatively optimistic.
Maiah Johnson Dunn, New York Kitchen beverage education manager
[wine] prediction We'll see continued sustainability efforts in both farming practices and people practices in 2024. In the bottle, we'll see some of the first wines go to market with the New York Sustainable Winegrowing Trustmark — an impressive feat as the 2023 growing season was not for the faint of heart. And, while not limited to the wine industry, their warm reception for the re-launch of DEI Over Wine at New York Kitchen makes me hopeful for a better wine industry overall (shameless plug but I'm super proud of it).
[wine] resolution Drink more bubbly.
where's the market headed? The mindful consumer's interest in low and no ABV offerings in the wine (and beer!) will swell. The Living Roots Session line is an especially tasty low-ABV option for those on the lookout.
Nate Kester, Irondequoit Beer Co. head brewer
My past predictions have not always been on point (How many times can I predict Lager Resurgence and Dominance, after all?), but I'll give it another shot this year. I feel pretty confident this time, actually. I think we'll see a lot more lower-ABV beers coming out. I'm thinking 4 to 6 percent, mostly as the inevitable pendulum swing back from the everything-is-8-percent-or-higher trend that seemed en vogue for years. We may see an emphasis on those lighter beers for a while, and I hope it all ends up with a balance between the two.
As for my annual beer resolution, my aim at IBC is to find more ways to pull the maximum flavor and body out of these low-ABV beers that are hot right now. A beer's ABV doesn't matter in the least, as long as it's flavorful, so that's my goal this year. And to make our beer balanced. Balanced and flavorful — what else is there?
Your third question is about the market and where it's going. I could be way off here (and, with my track record in these articles, I wouldn't be surprised), but I think we'll see breweries drift towards the extremes more. Not in terms of the beers we brew, but business models. I think we'll see breweries start distributing heavily and widely, or focus on being "The Local Spot." Both are sustainable, depending on how well you map it all out.
I'm looking forward to another exciting year of beer in Rochester! Cheers!
Paul Leone, New York State Brewers Association executive director
Beer prediction: We’ll continue to see breweries making more lagers and Pilsners and offering more low ABV options. You’ll also see more breweries diversifying what they offer in their tap rooms.
Beer resolution: The New York State Brewers Association will continue to help breweries through this new reality with even more education and marketing. We’ll also keep the harmful legislation from breaking through in 2024.
Where do I see the market heading? I see more breweries closing, I also see more breweries opening, I see breweries expanding and I see breweries contracting. The brewing industry has matured and is adjusting to a new reality that continued double-digit growth year after year was never sustainable. The industry is strong and will continue to adapt in 2024.
George Aldrich, Reinvention Brewing owner/director of brewing operations
Beer prediction: Yet another year asking for more lagers, and dry, crisp, lower alcohol, drinkable beers! I think the real beer consumer is going to continue to want drinkable beers, and while the super fruit smoothie chocolate chip 12 percent ABV candy syrup beers can be fun, they will continue to be more novelty than drinkable. I also think that consumers are starting to be overwhelmed by the variety and choices in the beer aisle. Every week you go in to your local shop everyone has released something new and different. While it's fun to try new things, I think consumers will continue to migrate back to their old standbys (flagships), and having a strong brand and customer loyalty is more important than ever.
Market prediction: The craft beer market is no longer in a crazy fast growth stage. It has entered much more of a mature market stage. This does not mean any sort of bubble is bursting, but it does mean the market is going to be more challenging and continue to change. We won't continue to see the fast growth in the number of breweries that we have the past several years. I compare the craft brewery to the local pizza parlor. Every town has a local pizza place, and it's not a huge deal when one closes and another opens, or someone sells their shop. It doesn't mean the pizza market is crashing. This will be much more common in the coming years.
You need a solid business plan, and know how to balance your budget while maintaining quality to stay successful. It's also not enough to "just" be a brewery anymore. You also need to offer more in order to draw in customers who have a lot of choices, and less available spending money. Whether that's a unique food menu, offering a live music venue, or some other secondary entertainment, you need to have a draw, and make it your own.
I predict a consolidation in the local craft beer market in 2024. Many brewery owners are older, semi-retired and will be ready to move on to something else. Some are struggling with the changing market, or just burnt out. Other breweries will be looking to increase sales by expanding into multiple taprooms. I think there will be a lot of change in ownership and small breweries deciding it's time to get out. There isn't a single brewery in the country that would surprise me if they announced a sale at this point. But through all this change, the overall market will still be strong, and Rochester will continue to have one of the best craft beer markets in the country.
Beer Resolution: As a personal beer resolution, I want to get out to more other local breweries. As an owner of a small local place, I have to wear a lot of hats, and don't have opportunity to get out as much as I'd like. But I want to make more of an effort to support my fellow breweries this year. There's a lot of amazing beer out there, and a lot of amazing people in this industry!
Brett Driscoll, Laurentide Beer Co. head brewer
I still think lower ABV beers are going to be the best sellers for most breweries, and I think people are also looking for more flavorful low ABV beers. Sessionable pale ales and hazies will continue to be popular or increase in popularity. Hoppier lagers and/or cold IPAs will continue to be popular.
At LBC,ho we will continue to focus on our straightforward low ABV flagships but look to experiment a bit more and get out of our comfort zone with styles, ingredients and flavor profiles.
I also think that small, neighborhood-style pub breweries (like the LBC) will continue to be sustainable as the midsize, over-extended breweries may either suffer a drop in quality as they expand, go out of business, or get bought up by larger breweries trying to move into the area.
Colleen Hardy, Living Roots Wine co-founder
On the Finger Lakes wine front, we’re excited about sparklings, hybrids and natives, and new styles and expressions including low to no alcohol “wines."
Matt James, Genesee Brewery brewmaster
Beer predictions for 2024: As budgets tighten for the general public and brewers alike, my hope and prediction is a resurgence in popularity of lower cost high quality common lagers and Pilsner selections.
Beer resolution: My resolution is a deep dive into possibilities for low alcohol and non-alcoholic options — in both beer and flavored malt beverages.
Market predictions: I think we could see an increase in consumers looking for lower ABV options. Also with economic pressure and sensory overload over the last few years, a resurgence of clean traditional light lagers.