2024 beer resolutions and predictions, part 3

Local and regional industry folks offer picks, predictions, and resolutions for 2024 in this seventh annual edition of this series

If you’re here, you already know the drill. This will be the third and final installment in the series.

Here are the three simple questions I posed:

1. What is your beer prediction for 2024?

2. What is your beer resolution?

3. Where do you see the market headed?

What follows is just a small sample of the thought-provoking responses I received. Expect at least two more parts in this series. Hope you enjoy reading these as much as I did putting them together.

Jon Mansfield, War Horse Brewing graphic designer/song-and-dance man

Nihil novi sub sole. (Editorial aside: Latin for “There is nothing new under the sun.” I appreciate that Jon always makes me do my homework.)

In the beer scene of 2024, lagers and lights continue to win folks over by embracing taste and tradition. However, the seltzer reckoning is upon us as a younger crowd, aging into their 20s and 30s has turned towards seltzies and RTD cocktails, challenging breweries to adapt. The hazy IPA remains a sturdy bellwether, sustaining many bottom lines. With fewer newcomers exploring the craft beer craze and material costs high as ever, breweries focus on strengthening core brands. Bills sneak into the playoffs (Jon made this prediction before this was published) and tee off on the entire league, a golden age is ushered into WNY. Somebody turns the fast ferry into a brewery.

Catt Hsu, Happy Gut Sanctuary co-founder

I see the coffee industry moving towards more specialty drinks in 2024. I think there are more affordable consumer espresso machines and coffee brewers than ever making it easier to brew a good cup of coffee at home. Where coffee shops shine is how we utilize different ingredients to pair with and showcase the coffees and teas we source. This invites a creative component that customers will enjoy — different coffee shops will have their own vibe/cultural influences which makes their offerings unique to them, and I'm sure, utilization of lots of seasonal and local ingredients. With Asian influences becoming more and more mainstream and popular, I also predict that there will be lots of Asian-inspired flavors. I'm very excited to see what everyone comes up with this year. I also anticipate less emphasis on caffeine and alcohol in general and more on herbal ingredients and teas for wellness.

Chris O’Leary, Brew York editor

Here we are again. More gloom and doom predictions!

Brewery closings will outpace brewery openings nationwide. This isn't too big of a stretch as I think that once the numbers are in for last year, this will be true of 2023, too (particularly given the pace of closings in December). The closings will be particularly noticeable in the middle tier of breweries that rapidly expanded in size and distribution footprint and can't get a retail foothold with their beer, particularly outside of their home market. 

More satellite taprooms will open. As breweries realize that distribution and retail sales are not the path to expansion in the new brewing economy, they will seek more opportunities for on-premise sales with little overhead. Breweries that have perfected that "third space" model as a community gathering place will look to replicate it.

The pivot to lager is real. It's a perfect storm of two factors: (1) beer demand is down, freeing up tank space for lagering, and (2) breweries are looking to diversify and bring in new beer drinkers who aren't drinking sours and IPAs and might be more price-conscious, which leads to...

There will be a reckoning about beer pricing. The squeeze on consumers has been real the past few years, and brewery taprooms have reacted to it in a number of different ways. Some have participated in shrink-flation by reducing pour sizes, some have increased prices, and some have kept their prices flat even as costs have risen. But increasingly I'm seeing $9 and even $10 pours of house-brewed beers in taprooms when I travel, and that's a bit jarring even for someone like me who's happy to pay for the luxury of a craft beer. It's definitely going to alienate some drinkers and might exacerbate the challenges that beer is facing bringing new consumers into the fold.

Dan Nothnagle, Three Heads Brewing president

I believe 2024 will be similar to 2023 in that the craft beer market will be choppy.  Clearly there has been a slowdown, consumers are choosing alternatives to beer and folks in the beer industry will face pressure.  Making great beer alone will not guarantee success — see recent closings and beer no longer in the market as evidence.  Three Heads Brewing will continue to make the Rochester's No. 1-selling IPA — The Kind. And look for some new and exciting things!  Consumers will be encouraged to support their local brewery more than ever or face a future of consolidated/bought-out craft brands seeking to dominate the market with pricing and slick marketing.

Dean Jones, Genesee Brew House brewmaster

I still say that lager beer is making a comeback! It's been slow but there have been small increases over the past few years. My beer resolution is to build on existing brews and find new ingredients that compliment them. Beers sales have slowed due to cannabis etc. I see that turning back to beer once the "newness" has worn off .

Cameron Frank, Smoldered Society Beer brand manager

I think there's a plethora of opportunities for some big changes in 2024 in the craft beer scene. I predict the beginning comeback of some classical styles that are not associated with what people in the industry consider to be "hype beers." 

Personally, I'd like to start exploring some of the more niche, old world lager beers. Over the last couple years my palate has entirely transitioned to the lager category and I always love the opportunity to try something new. I've been seeing some of the best names in the lager game (i.e. Schilling, Human Robot, King State) putting out a variety of lesser-known, bottom-fermented beers. 

2024 is going to be an incredibly interesting test of strength for the craft beer market. I think we're going to see a lot of the commonly known hype breweries begin to experiment outside of the volume drivers that we've known over the last few years. More specifically, you'll see a lot of the breweries that are known for hazies, sours, and adjunct stouts begin to release ingredient-driven beers, primarily lagers, at a much higher cadence.

Outside of beer, I think strong branding is more important now than ever. Experience-driven taprooms will prevail in the current market, which has become increasingly saturated. Marketing, modular identity, and brand continuity across products, social media platforms, and messaging, in my opinion, is now weighed equally with the quality of beer — sometimes more so. The way in which breweries are able to execute a brand experience inside of their taproom, or in the product experience, is crucial to brand longevity in a world of sensory overload.

Rob Richenberg, BrewBuddies founder/sales manager

1. What is your beer prediction for 2024?

   I think informed consumers are going to start utilizing an additional factor in their purchasing decisions, subconsciously or otherwise: culture/ethics. We’ve seen it happen with several national breweries over the past couple years where a brewery sees a decline in sales due to controversies (Founders, New Belgium, Bud Light). I can think of three more regional examples that are much more recent where accusations of ownership harassment or malfeasance have led to public outcry. This isn’t a gossip column though, so your readers will have to find those themselves.

2. What is your beer resolution? My personal beer resolution for 2024 is to visit more NYS breweries that I haven't worked with or previously heard of before. New York has 500-plus breweries and most of them only service their own very small market, sometimes only their own taproom.

3. Where do you see the market headed? I think 2024 is going to see more consolidations nationally where it makes sense. Within NY specifically, I think we're gonna see more breweries open secondary taprooms as traditional distribution becomes less attractive.

Tyler March, Wild East Brewing co-founder/head of operations

Beer prediction for 2024?
Similar to last year, I think we’ll keep seeing more lager, as well as more breweries aiming to improve the quality of their lager program by using continental ingredients, and traditional processes like decoction mashing and extended lagering time. We’ll also see more Lukr faucets at taprooms (hopefully used correctly).

I also believe the appreciation for clear and bitter West Coast-style IPAs will continue to gain momentum, as hazy IPA fatigue further settles in. I’m also going to predict we’ll see fewer Cold IPAs and more West Coast and NZ-style pilsners. Perhaps a new IPA variant will come along?

Beer resolution?
Drink more beer made by friends & colleagues and help support the community. This is especially true for breweries in NY state. There are so many highly-regarded breweries that I haven’t been to yet. I’m hoping to visit more new-to-me breweries, or at least get my hands on some of their beer.

Where do you see the market headed?
I think we’ll see fewer breweries making bad beer, or getting away with it as easily. With prices and competition increasing, the quality of craft beer will become more important than ever. That likely means more brand loyalty, versus style loyalty. 

As the hazy IPA trend moves closer to an equilibrium, breweries that have heavily relied on that style will look to differentiate themselves in other ways and add new offerings to their portfolio. New breweries will have a clearer focus or specialty. Breweries with excess capital will aim to increase market share through consolidation and/or opening additional taprooms. 

I also see breweries pushing the limits of what “beer” can be. That includes super low or NA offerings, hybrids or things like cocktail-inspired beers, and more exploration of lesser-known styles and more thoughtful creativity in brewing, versus gimmicks. Taproom experiences will also start to diversity to things outside of beer with various events, community partnerships, or performances to increase foot traffic and appeal to a wider audience. I also think we’ll continue seeing more niche beer festivals featuring a smaller number of breweries and attendees, and I’m all for it.

Will Cleveland (This is me)

My brain has been exceedingly soupy for a while now, so I’m going to keep this simple.

Prediction: Sales, closures, and consolidations. There’s still room to compete in the WNY/FLX market, but you have to know exactly what you are and what you wanna do. Quality remains king, but beer has become increasingly experiential. Whether it’s a great outdoor space or a partnership with an entertainment venue, breweries are looking more and more to create something enticing to consumers (and their families). So I think we’re going to see more of a reckoning with some places that fall short on experience continuing to flounder and in many cases sell or close. We’ve already seen that a bit locally with the closure of Roc, the impending sale of Young Lion, and partnership between Sager and Stoneyard. I think we’re gonna see even more of this.

My resolution is a simple one — be more mindful of my consumption habits. I am also vowing to make the 2024 Rochester Real Beer Expo even better than the first Innovative Field edition.

I am excited and scared to see what’s gonna happen. And I’d love to hear about what you’re looking forward to or what you think might happen. Lemme know!